Feds Warn Prediction Markets That Contracts Linked to Crime Are Prohibited

The United States federal government is reminding online betting exchanges that function as derivate financial markets that offering event contracts involving crime remains prohibited.

Kalshi and other prediction-based are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Last week, the independent agency of the U.S. government that oversees derivates, including futures, swaps, and options, told Kalshi and others like it that contracts based on outcomes associated with crime, assassination, terrorism, and war are banned.

CFTC Regulation 40.11 prohibits event contracts that reference terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any state or federal law. The CFTC explains that the statute bans markets contrary to the public interest.

The notice to Kalshi came after the launched contracts involving Luigi Mangione, the suspected gunman in the Dec. 4 killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. 

Days after Mangione was arrested at a McDonald s in Altoona, PA, Kalshi debuted several contracts regarding the alleged gunman s future. They included when Mangione might be extradited to New York, whether he would plead guilty, and if Mangione would say he didn t act alone.

Less than 48 hours after the markets went live, Kalshi yanked the betting questions after receiving notice from our regulators.

Betting markets like Kalshi are free to launch hot-button issues such as those surrounding Mangione without first gaining approval from the CFTC. However, the federal agency can order contracts to be paused for review or for them to be withdrawn from the market should the CFTC deem them to violate Regulation 40.11.

While exchanges that accept customers from the U.S. are regulated by the CFTC and must refrain from engaging in contracts banned by Regulation 40.11, sites like do not. The website that deals in cryptocurrency continues to offer 10 contracts about Mangione.

More than $441K has been wagered on the Polymarket question, Is Luigi Mangione s YouTube channel real?

On Dec. 9 the YouTube channel @PepMangione posted a video titled The Truth, stating, If you see this, I m already under arrest. This market will resolve to Yes if the https://www.youtube.com/@PepMangione YouTube channel is real, i.e., it is proven to be operated by Luigi Mangione or a person/system that he authorized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No,' the contract reads. 

Despite siding with prediction contract exchanges this fall and allowing sites like Kalshi to take bets on the , there remain plenty of critics of the emerging industry.

It s straight gambling, Cantrell Dumas, director of derivatives policy at Better Markets, a financial policy think tank in Washington, told Bloomberg. People are betting on whether this person is allegedly responsible for the assassination of another human being, and here we are desensitized to this and betting on whether he ll enter a guilty plea.

It s expected that the CFTC under the second Trump administration will again be friendlier to these types of exchanges. Trump has pledged deregulation not more federal oversight. The president-elect has promised to repeal 10 federal regulations for every new one imposed.